
Smoke and Mirrors
Electric Restructuring’s Failed Promise
It’s still called deregulation, even though states that tried it tended to wind up with more regulation instead of less. It’s still called retail choice, even though the lack of competing suppliers to choose from is one of its hallmarks. And it may forever be pondered how many of its proponents understood what they hoped to bring about.
It’s been 10 years since energy consumers got their first taste of a nationwide promotional effort marketing the concept of electric utility restructuring, delivered as a 30-second TV advertisement during Super Bowl XXXI and in the less expensive venue of cable networks during the months that followed. The subject was an experimental program letting New Hampshire electricity users choose alternative power providers, but the sponsor was in Texas. It was a natural gas and electricity-trading firm called Enron.
What it Was—and Wasn’t
Long since bankrupt and synonymous with corporate fraud and malfeasance, Enron in the mid-1990s was the undisputed 800-pound gorilla of electric restructuring and visions of an Enron takeover stalked the dreams of many utility leaders. A goodly number concluded that fighting for their lives might get them hurt, and they joined (or at least convincingly simulated enthusiasm for) the restructuring movement. Certainly some yearned to escape a humdrum existence in the world of regulated utilities and taste the excitement of swashbuckling competition in unrelated enterprises, but those appetites were soon to be quenched.
Superficially, restructuring was supposed to be deregulation: the process of lifting or mitigating government restrictions on private businesses. During the 1970s, deregulation achieved notable success in transportation-related industries, allowing competitive providers into markets and making services more efficient, available, and affordable for greater numbers of consumers.
The key to accomplishing all this in the electric utility industry was purported to be “retail wheeling,” moving power generated by one utility (or by a non-utility independent power producer) to a retail end-use customer, using the transmission and distribution systems of other utilities.
Unless the customer was paying a conspicuously high price for basic electricity, the prospect of real savings would be slim: The incumbent utility would still be charging for infrastructure costs and delivering the power, and middlemen would enter the picture. So the difference between the competing providers’ kilowatt-hour rates would have to be substantial before the consumer would find the exercise worthwhile.
Momentum Builds
But there were states with retail rates high enough to make the whole thing seem plausible. Regulated utilities in some northeastern states were charging rates almost double those then typical in the Midwest—and nearly triple those in the hydropower-rich Pacific Northwest. Though far from the highest, California’s rates were high enough to make a bold experiment look attractive.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission added momentum with its 1996 Order 888, compelling public utilities to allow open access to their transmission systems in order to facilitate competitive wholesale power markets. With electricity at least theoretically able to be bought anywhere at deregulated prices and resold anywhere else, not many barriers to full retail competition were thought to remain.
About two-dozen states adopted restructuring laws during the latter half of the 1990s, allowing retail customers to switch from their existing, regulated utility to another provider who would deliver power over the incumbent utility’s lines.
But the plans were fatally flawed. Realizing that some customers would see their costs increase, legislators in one state after another mandated artificial rate reductions and a variety of contrivances to make everyone feel like they’d hit the jackpot. The inevitability of the bills coming due didn’t seem to register.
A former member of the Wisconsin Public Service Commission who was an enthusiast for free-market deregulation once told Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News the various state restructuring plans were “doomed to succeed.” They would seem to be delivering benefits and catch on, he predicted, only to have the roof fall in later.
One thing they would not do was answer the question whether a genuinely deregulated electricity market would create healthy competition. Limited by existing technology, chances are it couldn’t have. But the question hasn’t been answered because restructuring programs were set up so it was never asked.
Poison Pills
Even among those devoted to free-market economics, there are abundant reasons to doubt that competition at the retail level will benefit electric utility customers in the way it so obviously does when they’re shopping for, say, candy bars, brokerage services, or the occasional airline ticket.
Those transactions can be completed in multiple ways, delivering truckloads of products by any chosen route, exchanging pieces of paper or digital signals, or storing things up until they’re desired by the consumer. Electricity, however, cannot be efficiently stored but must be used as it’s produced. Most importantly, it can be delivered only through wires not duplicated by competing providers. Until the laws of physics can be amended or we are willing to accept the financial, esthetic, and environmental costs of unlimited sets of distribution lines, delivering electricity will be a monopoly enterprise.
These and other limitations prompted lawmakers and regulatory authorities in the restructuring states to tinker with market forces. A cynic might say they rigged the market to make it appear there were no losers.
More than 30 utilities stepped forward to compete in New Hampshire’s pilot program, and the Public Utilities Commission, in a move that does not sound like deregulation, ordered them to pay “pilot participation credits,”—rebates—deducting 10 percent from the bottom line of each customer’s bill.
Enron’s TV ad claimed that for its customers in Peterborough, New Hampshire, “typical savings range[d] from 10 to 20 percent.” True as far as it went, but clearly some “typical” customers were saving only the mandatory rebate, which existed only to demonstrate immediate “savings.”
California’s 1998 restructuring law mandated an immediate 10-percent rate reduction by incumbent utilities, who were to be indemnified against the resulting revenue losses by a $10 billion bond issue that ratepayers will ultimately have to make good.
Illinois legislators mandated a 10-percent rate reduction and froze rates for 10 years at the reduced level.
As standard components of restructuring laws, such contrivances guaranteed the ultimate failure of the programs. Within a few years after most laws were enacted, generation fuel prices began to rise and competing suppliers began dropping out of the market.
Competition Dwindles; Rates Rise
Many competing suppliers owned no generation capacity. They bought power as cheaply as they could on the open wholesale market and resold it to customers who signed up for their service. When rising fuel costs drove up wholesale prices, they couldn’t beat the incumbent utilities’ rates—artificially reduced and frozen by law—and had to quit the market or sell power for less than it had cost them. Competition vanished.
The Wisconsin Federation of Cooperatives foresaw this in a series of papers called Power Politics, distributed to policymakers statewide from 1997–99. Four years before the spectacular collapse of its restructuring experiment brought skyrocketing prices and rolling blackouts to California, Power Politics warned, “For the frugal householder who sets out gamely upon the new electrical wilderness buoyed by the hope of saving a penny or two per kilowatt-hour, calamity looms ahead.” It went on to explain that just as the number of middlemen staking their claim on the householder’s electricity purchases grew, “the number of actual suppliers competing for his business will have shrunk.”
Today, political maneuvers designed to make everyone feel like a winner are bearing bitter fruit as legislated rate caps expire with few competitive suppliers left in the market and utilities eager to make up lost ground.
Last year, customers of Maryland’s Baltimore Gas and Electric found themselves facing a 57-percent rate increase as the clock ran out on a decade-long freeze.
This spring, Illinois legislators were trying to figure out what to do about rate hikes of more than 50 percent for downstate utility Ameren and more than 20 percent for Chicago’s Commonwealth Edison, which predicts $4 million daily losses and bankruptcy if lawmakers renew the freeze they imposed in 1997.
Pennsylvania consumers taking service from alternative providers peaked at about 800,000 in April 2001. Since then the number has dwindled to just over 134,000, and big rate hikes are on tap for next year, with capped rates expiring.
Dodging the Bullet
Wisconsin nearly fell into this trap. A mid-1990s blue ribbon commission mapped out an orderly transition to competitive retail markets, including a detailed timeline for breaking incumbent utilities into separate companies operating generation, transmission, and distribution systems.
Promoting the restructuring agenda in a message to ratepayers, the head of one major utility wrote, “If we expect to keep your business, we will have no choice but to provide you with the greatest possible value for your energy dollar,” surely an unsettling statement to any customer who pondered what the utility implicitly might do if left to its own devices.
They never found out, because the reluctance of Wisconsin’s utilities and utility regulators to build new infrastructure over the preceding two decades both minimized costs and created deficiencies. The deficiencies would reveal themselves when the fast-growing volume of wholesale transactions over the deregulated transmission grid finally collided with a hot summer.
Warning signs appeared in 1995 when a summer heat wave drove up electricity demand, forcing service curtailments and scattered business closings. But that was before FERC Order 888 made the nation’s transmission system busier than it had ever been before.
By 1997, Order 888 was in place. When hot weather arrived in June with two nuclear plants down for maintenance and Wisconsin’s transmission system too clogged to import sufficient power, curtailments and business closings were the routine for several days.
In 1998—still holding the record as the hottest year worldwide in several centuries—Wisconsin endured more curtailments, though not so severe as the preceding summer. Still, it was enough to drive home a lesson about jumping into a restructuring experiment with system reliability already uncertain.
Both that year and the following year, Wisconsin lawmakers approved reliability legislation (not restructuring) amid a general loss of credibility for the few who continued trying to sell the line that a redesigned industry with customers shopping for alternative providers would solve the state’s problems—despite the infrastructure’s demonstrated inability to consistently deliver the goods.
Within a year after that, the California experiment blew up. Wisconsin, and others, were saved.—Dave Hoopman