Power Squeeze
The Pending Pinch of Rising Demand
Will our nation’s electric system continue to provide a reliable, safe, and affordable supply of power in coming years?
This question was asked most recently by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a Princeton, N.J.-based non-profit organization charged with monitoring America’s power system reliability. In October 2007, NERC published its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment, which provides a forecast on how much electric generating capacity will be available during the next decade. The report also estimates how much electricity people will use over that time.
The organization’s findings revealed that current plans to build power plants and high-voltage transmission lines lag behind the expected growth in power consumption. They also match a U.S. Department of Energy forecast that demand for electricity nationally will increase by 40 percent during the next 22 years. Even if the country can dramatically increase efficiency and conservation programs, electricity demand over time will continue to grow as our economy and population grows.
NERC warned, “Demand for electricity is expected to increase over the next 10 years by approximately 18 percent in the United States, but confirmed generation capacity will increase by only 8.5 percent; expansion and strengthening of the transmission system [also] continues to lag demand growth and expansion of generating resources in most areas.”
Falling Behind
Prospects for bringing many additional large-scale generation resources on line within that 10-year time frame get increasingly shaky as time passes. Consider the case of coal-fired generation, which at present supplies the U.S. with 50 percent its electricity and electric co-ops with 62 percent of their power requirements.
It takes a minimum of six years to build and put a coal-fired power plant into operation, barring regulatory or legal challenges. The Associated Press recently reported that nearly four-dozen new coal plants in 29 states are being contested, mostly due to concerns related to greenhouse gas emissions. Projections are that it might take as long as 10 years before technology can be successfully implemented to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning power plants.
Ramping up development of nuclear power, also touted as a possible solution to lagging capacity, might not fare much better than coal. Nuclear power generates 20 percent of all electricity in the U.S. and about 15 percent of electric co-op power needs. But it was 1986 when the last new nuclear plant in the U.S. came on line, and a facility for permanently storing radioactive spent-fuel from operating reactors remains controversial. Projections are that it could be at least 10 years before a respository gets completed. Last August marked the first time in nearly 30 years that a utility filed an application to construct a new nuke plant, and that application was followed by two more from other utilities—but estimates hold that it would take 10 years to bring any new nuclear reactor on line.
A Brief Tutorial
There are a few unique properties of electricity and the dynamics of power generation that need to be understood to fully grasp the impact of NERC’s assessment:
• Electricity can’t be stored—it must be used immediately and flow continuously. Electric energy generated at a power plant flows through high-voltage transmission lines to substations, where it is reduced to a lower voltage for safe distribution to homes and businesses. Reliability refers to the availability of electricity when and where consumers need it, without interruption.
• Not every power plant generates electricity all of the time. Across the country on any given day, it is normal for numerous plants to be shut down due to a broad range of issues, such as scheduled maintenance, fuel availability or price, or low water levels at a dam where a hydroelectric power plant operates.
• High-voltage transmission lines carrying electricity from generating plants to distribution substations need regular and emergency maintenance. Vegetation management to clear rights-of-way or weather events—such as ice storms or tornadoes—can interrupt the flow of electricity on these “power highways.”
• For consumers to receive reliable electric service, a certain amount of extra capacity must always be available. NERC has stated that generation capacity margins should average 15 percent or more. In other words, generation plants should be able to produce approximately 15 percent more electricity than consumers are expected to use during times of peak demand —the electric utility industry’s equivalent of rush-hour traffic. This helps ensure sufficient power in an emergency or if a specific power plant needs to be shut down for service.
Reliability’s Challenge
NERC officials sought to convey a message that preserving future reliability is a matter of immediate and near-nationwide concern. The report found that even if all power plants under construction now are completed on time and begin generating electricity in the amounts slated, and new construction ramps up according to plans now underway, generation capacity margins would drop below minimum reliability margin levels in certain areas of the United States within the next two to three years.
Regions affected include California, Rocky Mountain states, New England, Texas, the Southwest, and Midwest. Other parts of our country could face a reliability gap a few years later. In western Canada, the problem could become apparent to consumers within two years.
NERC President Rick Sergel acknowledged some improvements to this nation’s power grid, but he warned that the system is operating “at or near its limits more often than ever before.”
“We are at the stage where emergency situations are becoming more frequent,” Sergel said.
In addition to the needed power supply, transmission line capacity (what’s needed to deliver the power) is projected to increase by a bit less than 9 percent in the United States—and by just 4.8 percent in Canada over the next 10 years.
All of this means that a sudden surge in weather-caused disruptions or a batch of construction delays could leave consumers facing immediate and recurring disruptions in their supply of electricity.
Renewables, Boomers
In its report, NERC examines other significant problems that could affect reliability. For example, generation capacity additions like the currently popular development of wind farms present challenges of their own in terms of reliably integrating them into the bulk power system. One concern is intermittency—the fact that wind only blows about 40 percent of the time and generally not on hot, humid weekdays in the summer when power consumption skyrockets.
Another challenge is the difficulty of siting and building transmission lines to deliver power from wind farms’ often-remote locations. While acknowledging some recent moves to strengthen the transmission grid, siting and building transmission facilities has become increasingly difficult, the report noted.
“NIMBY is becoming NIMS: Not in My State,” Sergel said, adding, “Reliability of the power grid in one state affects reliability in other states, too, due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the power grid.”
People are as much a part of the picture as infrastructure, the NERC report said, noting the need to attract well-trained younger workers to replace the aging workforce of electric utility professionals. The study referenced the looming waves of baby-boomer retirements and cited a separate study by the Hays Group, detailing that some 40 percent of senior electrical engineers and shift supervisors in the power industry become eligible for retirement in 2009.
“This loss of expertise, exacerbated by the lack of new recruits entering the field, is one of the more severe challenges facing reliability today,” the NERC said.
It called for support for university research and development programs, more outreach, and greater partnership between industry and government to address the coming personnel challenges.
Plea to Policymakers
Glenn English, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association based in Arlington, Va., believes the NERC study shows that the nation’s lawmakers and regulators must quickly come to grips with the difficult challenges of meeting future energy demand.
“The generation and transmission needed to supply everyone with electricity will get built,” says English. “Electric co-ops, as not-for-profit, consumer-owned utilities have an obligation to serve. The issue is how we manage rising costs associated not only with the fuels needed to produce electricity and construction materials like steel, copper, and concrete, but climate change as well. Policymakers must seek out solutions that are feasible technologically and can be sustained economically—remedies that will allow electric co-ops to continue providing reliable, affordable power in an environmentally responsible fashion.”
For consumers, energy-saving tips such as turning off lights when not in use, replacing old appliances and equipment with more energy-efficient models, and managing electricity use carefully were encouraged by NERC with simple advice: “Beginning now, start doing everything you can to use electricity wisely.”—Nancy S. Grant and Jennifer Taylor
Nancy S. Grant is a freelance writer based near Louisville, KY, and is a member of the American Society of Journalists and Authors. Jennifer Taylor is writer of consumer and cooperative affairs at the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association |
