
Lining Up
Renewables require transmission build-out. Who makes the rules?
Last fall this magazine noted a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study focusing on growing electricity needs in rural America [see “Grid Skid,” Nov. 2008]. That study was released a couple of months before the economy took its nosedive, muddling near-term energy-demand projections. But barring a policy blunder on the scale of the Smoot-Hawley tariff that snuffed world trade and a budding recovery from the Great Depression, the economy won’t stay in recession forever, and the issues addressed in the USDA report will be highly relevant to renewed economic growth.
If anything, ready access to reliable, affordable electricity being a prerequisite to a productive economy, the needs identified in the report take on even greater importance.
Among many other things, the USDA said without upgrades to the transmission grid, brownouts were “probable” in the near future, and while improvements would be costly, “the cost of brownouts could be higher due to interruptions of commercial activity.”
So maybe the hardship of a recession buys extra time to build stronger systems for the future. Whether or not it’s now thinking along those lines, the Agriculture Department is far from alone in seeing a need to build.
New Priorities
Rural U.S. energy needs are not the only factor driving interest in new electric infrastructure. In fact, the greatest demand for large new transmission lines—some larger than the biggest ever built in Wisconsin—may stem from the combined efforts of government and large energy developers to expand production of wind power in the Upper Midwest and deliver it to East Coast population centers.
With more reliance on wind energy not just a popular concept but a practical necessity for utilities complying with state, and soon, federal, renewable energy mandates, geography will increasingly dictate both the location of generation facilities and the long-distance export of their production.
As Jesse Moser of the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) recently explained, “Where the wind is, in the middle of the country, there’s not a lot of load.”
Some would say there’s plenty of electrical load in the Midwest, but of course it isn’t a lot compared with the power demands of the metroplex stretching roughly from Boston through New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.
Renewable energy developers are proposing to serve that area with wind power, but as Moser says, Virginia isn’t very good for wind generation. Wisconsin is better, he says, and Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakotas better still.
To act on that knowledge inevitably means new, extra-high-voltage transmission lines from the Dakotas through Minnesota, parts of Iowa, and likely Wisconsin, stretching eastward to the Philadelphia and New York metro areas to feed systems up and down the coast.
Last month, Moser talked about those issues at a Madison forum sponsored by the Customers First! Coalition, an advocacy group for reliable, affordable electricity founded in the mid-1990s by the Wisconsin Electric Cooperative Association, municipal utilities, and others.
His employer, the MISO, operates and dispatches the wholesale electricity market for several states including Wisconsin and participates in joint planning with similar regional organizations serving states east of the Rocky Mountains.
In February, the MISO and its allies spelled out what they think it would take to supply the eastern half of the United States with 20 percent wind energy by 2024. Their Joint Coordinated System Plan said reaching that goal would require 15,000 miles of new transmission lines at a cost of about $80 billion, along with a trillion-dollar investment in new generating facilities.
Even expansion to just 5 percent wind energy by 2024—a scenario labeled in the joint plan as “business as usual with respect to wind development”—was projected to require 10,000 miles of new extra-high voltage lines to accommodate additional generation, with a combined price tag of about $750 billion.
Wisconsin utilities are well on the way to meeting their state-mandated quota of 10 percent renewable energy—as a practical matter almost entirely from wind—by 2015. But other states have mandated 25 percent by 2025 and both Wisconsin and the federal government are almost sure to do the same.
New Markets, New Rules
Assuming they’re satisfied that the costs are justified by the benefits, the next obvious consideration for utility planners and regulatory authorities is how to equitably spread the cost of such ventures, especially with energy prices already on the rise. Moser told the Customers First! gathering that under the 20-percent-by-2024 scenario, who benefits from new infrastructure may be determined by public policy decisions rather than by the load flow or economic factors that have traditionally formed the basis for allocating costs of new transmission facilities.
But there’s something else to be considered, a new twist on the most basic issue in every utility project ever proposed: Who gets to decide what’s built and where?
Eric Callisto, chairman of Wisconsin’s Public Service Commission (PSC), is straightforward about his concern over a federal takeover of siting authority for large transmission projects.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has talked for years about expanding its reach to decisions now made by state regulatory bodies like the PSC, but last month Callisto warned the Customers First! audience that Congress is getting into the act. Senators Harry Reid (D–NV) and Jeff Bingaman (D–NM) have introduced bills that move aggressively toward federal oversight of transmission planning. On the House side, Callisto said, Rep. Henry Waxman (D–CA) treats the issue as “a very small piece” of a wide-ranging energy bill.
The latter approach, Callisto said, “shows, perhaps, an acknowledgement of the difficulty of this issue,” and might be “a good sign that there’s a lot more debate to come on this very important topic down the road.”
There’s every sign he would prefer not just more debate, but lengthy debate. Broader federal authority is promoted on the basis that “we can’t get transmission lines built in this country because state regulators throw up roadblocks,” Callisto says, but he rejects that as a largely false premise.
He says there may be “certain pockets of the country” where states have impeded necessary projects, but that is “simply not accurate in the upper Midwest.” Since 1990 Wisconsin has completed nearly 2,300 miles of transmission improvements, Callisto says, “So we are a part of the country that can get it done when you put your will to it.”
The issue boils down to something more than protecting regulatory turf. If Wisconsin loses its siting authority to the federal government, state residents who won’t necessarily benefit could end up paying for bigger transmission lines than any yet seen in this state.
At least two companies have proposed 765-kilovolt lines crossing Wisconsin to deliver Dakota wind energy to the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland region. The biggest existing lines in Wisconsin carry 345 kilovolts.
Callisto says the proponents have “come up with some snazzy PowerPoints,” but, “No one to date has submitted the kind of granular evidence that would support those large lines, particularly the costs that are associated with them.” The cost, he says, would be $15 to $20 billion.
In January, in a non-specific but apparent reference to those same projects, he told Wisconsin electric co-op managers he was concerned about “a potentially huge new transmission corridor in this state” to carry energy that might do little to serve the needs of Wisconsin residents, and he warned, “Five states are trying to figure out who will end up paying for it.”
Sitting on the hot seat when it comes to passing judgment on utility projects and approving recovery of the costs from ratepayers, Callisto says he does see value in more transmission lines. “They provide optionality at this particularly difficult point in time when we’re not sure exactly where Congress and the president are going to go on climate change issues,” he says, explaining that new lines can afford access to “a variety of generation sources that we might not otherwise have.”
Doing Fine, Thanks
Flora Flygt of the American Transmission Company (ATC) is also attracted to the idea of transmission lines serving more than one purpose. Waukesha-based ATC owns, builds, and maintains most of the transmission system serving Wisconsin, and Flygt told the Customers First! audience new transmission projects “should meet multiple needs.”
Siting decisions should be based on the answers to at least two questions, Flygt said: “Where do we see emerging reliability needs on our system? Where do we see emerging economic needs?”
Federal regulators could be helpful, she said, but it didn’t come across as a ringing endorsement. “[The federal government] could coordinate their agencies and their permitting process,” Flygt said. “There are many federal agencies from which we need to get various permits, so we need a one-stop shop for federal permits because often times federal permitting can add a year or two to the time to build a project.”
Laura McCarten has been Xcel Energy’s point person for the CAPx2020 project, a coordinated effort of 11 cooperative, municipal, and investor-owned utilities. Launched in 2004, CAPx2020 was to figure out what would be needed to meet transmission requirements 16 years in the future and have it ready on time. Most of the activity will occur in Minnesota. Some is proposed for Wisconsin.
McCarten makes it plain that CAPx2020 planners have had markedly different experiences working with state and federal regulators.
“We have had nothing but support and engagement and appropriate attention from our state regulatory agencies,” she told the Customers First! gathering. “We have also found that working with federal agencies can be difficult, sort of balkanized. There is not the same centralization of who’s in charge and what time frames apply and it would be very beneficial if some of that was tightened up.”
Among numerous other projects, CAPx2020 has won regulatory approval to upgrade a 150-mile line into the Twin Cities that, as it stands now, impedes delivery of renewables from points west. With the upgrade, it will allow transfer of five gigawatts (that’s 5,000 megawatts or 5,000,000 kilowatts) of renewable energy.
This spring, ATC obtained authorization to upgrade a line in Wood and Portage counties that’s been a notorious bottleneck constraining delivery of energy, renewable and otherwise, from points west into eastern Wisconsin. Under the right weather and load conditions the old line has even threatened reliability across a multi-state area. Now, with a major new line in place to backstop the precarious connection, an upgrade can proceed without excessive risk of disruptions.
Those things were accomplished working with state regulators in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Stay tuned as more state lines and more jurisdictions—or maybe just one very big one—get into the game.---Dave Hoopman