Wisconsin Favorites Museum Traces History of
Wisconsin National Guard
ARCHIVES
Crystal Gaze
How Our 50-Year-Old Predictions Fared
Editor’s note: As one of the May 1960 articles to help highlight the 25th anniversary of the federal rural electrification program, Wisconsin REA News offered an amusing glimpse into the future. Editor Les Nelson went out on a limb to make 16 predictions of advances—mostly technological in nature—that consumers in 1985 could expect to see.
We couldn’t find that a 1985 edition of our statewide publication (by then called Wisconsin R.E.C. News) carried an evaluation of Les’ soothsaying prowess, but as May 2010 marks precisely 50 years since those predictions appeared in print, we thought a review could be both fun and instructive.
Making allowances for the technologies that were known to exist a half century ago, we found a majority of the predictions to be eerily accurate.
Following is the complete text of Les Nelson’s article from May 1960, after which we’ll make a few observations.
A Glance at The Future—May 1985
A Silver Jubilee celebration is a time for history, a time for looking back. We're doing a little of that on the pages of this issue, but right here we're going to look ahead. What will it be like to live in Wisconsin in May 1985?
We're doing this because it's fun and because we don't have to look up so many facts as we do when looking back. Get your facts wrong when looking back 25 years and somebody will call you on it immediately. But look 25 years ahead and by the time anybody can refute you they've forgotten what you said.
So let's look at May 1985.
• As you watch a TV newscast, a printed, more detailed version of the same news will roll out of the TV set for you to read at your leisure.
• Congress, when in session, will be televised continuously.
• Recording devices will make it possible to record telecasts automatically in your home to be played back later.
• Above-ground electric and telephone wires will be a thing of the past except for high-voltage transmission.
• With your telephone you'll be able to dial most anyone, anywhere in the country and see the person you're talking with.
• Clothing will be cleaned with sound waves rather than water. Many fabrics will be practically impervious to dirt.
• Most meals will be prepared in less than ten minutes with the help of improved freezing techniques, electronic ranges, and improved means of preserving food without refrigeration.
• The plow will be a thing of the past. Many plants will be grown with the help of selective chemicals that feed only the desired plant. More plants will be grown indoors under controlled conditions.
• The piston engine will be a thing of the past, replaced by electric fuel-cell engines, turbines, or perhaps a type of power unknown today.
• The only flame in any house will be in fireplaces or on birthday cakes. All heating and cooling will be done electrically.
• Cash will be a rarity, with most purchases made by check or credit card. Checks and credit cards will be cleared instantaneously, electronically from a central location so that any place of business can find out in a second if your credit is good.
• Electric meters will register in dollars and cents, eliminating the billing book. Other meters will register usage electronically at a central location by a computing machine that will spew out your bill, ready to be mailed.
• Businesses will practically never mail correspondence to other companies but will send them by wire to a machine that produces an exact duplicate at the other end.
• Fluid milk will no longer be marketed; only concentrates to which water is added in the home.
• Virtually all foodstuffs will either be produced on contract for large food chains or marketed through cooperatives. Quotas will pertain in either case.
• There will be more horses on farms than there are today. Not only will riding horses be kept for recreational purposes as they are today, but there'll be enough “dude” farms so anybody who wants to can drive a team of horses for the fun of it.
Enough? Actually it's just a small sampling of the future, and a pretty safe one, at that. We've been dealing here largely with mechanical, scientific progress and predictions in this field have been notoriously conservative.
People are more willing to accept new things than they realize. Even the farmers who fought successfully for the establishment of electric co-ops in the early days of REA didn't realize how quickly they would abandon the old ways of wood, gas, and oil in favor of electricity. Progress came in direct proportion to their willingness to accept new methods. Individually, any electric co-op member can get along without an electric range and water heater and refrigerator. Collectively, he cannot, for these and other appliances make low rates possible and only through low rates can even more advanced uses of power find acceptance.
Anyway, we think we may be quite conservative in our estimate of 1985. There is only one big “if” and that is war, which would void everything. On this, few will venture a prediction because men have been notoriously over-optimistic in their predictions of their ability to get along with each other.—Les Nelson
The View from 2010
The key theme of this whole exercise is summed up in the observation late in the article about progress coming in direct proportion to consumers’ “willingness to accept new methods.”
What few people could forsee in 1960 was the range of tasks that home computers and the Internet could take on. For example, the initial prediction of getting more detail, at our leisure, from TV newscasts has been fulfilled through web site links available via the Internet, eclipsing printed paper as the way to display information. Likewise, computer, web, and cell-phone technologies satisfy the prediction about being able to do live video chats across the country. The one forecast concerning business communications seems to suggest FAX machines, an innovation that to a large degree has already been leapfrogged by e-mail communications.
Spot-On, Insightful
There are other spot-on predictions we can marvel at: the creation of C-Span to televise Congress, which happened in the 1970s; videotape for recording television programs coming into use in the late 1970s; microwave ovens (“electronic ranges”) gaining household prominence in those years; the rise of credit cards to the exclusion of cash (and even checks) and the instant credit verifications (also courtesy of computer technology). Pretty insightful.
Of course, some prognostications were a bit beyond satisfaction: sound waves for clothes cleaning, no plowing, no fluid milk, and the rise of “dude” farms. However, it was a good call to forecast the influence of large chains (McDonald’s, Wal-Mart) on food marketing.
Appearing in the statewide publication for electric co-ops, it was natural that some of the more interesting predictions had to do with technology employed by power suppliers. The one mention of “computing machines” occurs in the forecast describing how utilities will use meters to “register usage electronically” and then “spew out your bill.” Many co-ops are now just completing deployment of automated meter reading (AMR) units that accomplish that and more. In fact, electric co-ops lead the utility industry in use of these advanced devices.
It’s noted, “The piston engine will be a thing of the past,” describing the advance of new automotive technology. Though gas engines haven’t been phased out yet, the most recent innovations have come in the form of plug-in electric vehicles.
Advance, Retreat
Finally, there’s the prediction that overhead electric lines would be outmoded, replaced with underground wire. As it turned out, it’s a trend that flourished and then retreated. Electric co-ops and other utilities plowed in a lot of underground distribution line back in the 1970s, but corrosion took its toll on the wires, and co-ops found themselves spending considerable time and money fixing problems that resulted.
According to Clark Electric Co-op Line Superintendent Rick Suda, “Faults were harder to find and harder to fix” than on overhead lines, and co-ops ultimately needed to replace much underground conductor with the conventional overhead type. Though many lines to new residential areas are run underground these days, he said, the amount represents a small proportion of the total number of miles of line in the cooperative system.
Still, given the immense shift in technology during the past five decades, we remain impressed by the overall accuracy the predictions offered in May 1960. We won’t hazard our own forecasts for 25 or 50 years hence, except perhaps to echo the article’s final assertion. It’s a pretty safe bet men will continue to be notoriously over-optimistic about their ability to get along with each other.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO), a non-partisan congressional watchdog agency that audits federal programs, completed a nine-month, undercover investigation of the Energy Star program in March, ultimately characterizing the program as “vulnerable to fraud and abuse.” The report sent agencies administering the program scurrying to take corrective action.
Energy Star, created by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1992 as a voluntary, international standard for rating energy-efficientconsumer products, covers more than 60 categories of appliances, lighting, electronics, building materials, heating and cooling equipment, and the like. The blue Energy Star logo appears on countless products found on store shelves. Federal energy efficiency tax credits for appliances and home heating and air-conditioning systems typically require qualifying products to be Energy Star-rated.
As part of its study, commissioned by U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R–Maine), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, GAO submitted fake products and listed non-existent companies for evaluation by Energy Star.
The Sting
The agency formed four fake companies that created 20 bogus energy-efficient products, several of them outrageous on their face, such as a gasoline-powered alarm clock. Of the 20 fictitious products, 15 were granted Energy Star status by the EPA and the Department of Energy (DOE), which jointly run the program. Of the four fake companies, all were named Energy Star partners by the federal agencies.
The report gained coverage on network TV and in other media soon after its release. “We must fix this problem immediately, to allow the government, manufacturers, and consumers to once again have confidence in the Energy Star label,” said Senator Collins.
In response, EPA noted, “We take this report very seriously. We welcome all efforts, internal or external, to improve the [Energy Star] program. That's why we have started an enhanced testing program and have already taken enforcement actions against companies that violated the rules.”
Track Record Touted
A 2009 EPA review found 98 percent of products tested met or exceeded Energy Star requirements. Devices carrying the Energy Star logo—such as computers and electronics, kitchen and household appliances, residential lighting, and windows—were found to deliver the same or better performance and use 20 to 30 percent less energy on average than comparable models, according to EPA.
“Energy Star uses a series of checks to ensure consumers are getting products that cut energy costs,” said a joint statement from EPA and DOE. “One of the reasons the system has worked…is that manufacturers have a market incentive to test competitors' products and report violations, which supports the program's own independent testing, verification, and enforcement initiatives.”
Consumers have largely embraced the 18-year-old energy efficiency program. A survey by the Consortium for Energy Efficiency—a group including members like the Tennessee Valley Authority and Bonneville Power Administration—discovered 76 percent of American households recognize the Energy Star brand. Of these consumers, 73 percent purchased an Energy Star-labeled product within the last year.
The GAO review adds to other Energy Star concerns, however. The New York Times revealed last October that some manufacturers of household appliances were testing products for Energy Star-certification internally instead of using independent laboratories. In response, Energy Star ramped up oversight of product ratings and by the end of 2009 revoked the Energy Star label for some refrigerators while raising the bar for efficiency expected from TVs.
Agencies Act
The latest response from EPA and DOE, announced April 14, included changes to the Energy Star product-certification process. Effective as of that date, manufacturers wishing to qualify their products as Energy Star were required to submit complete lab reports and results for review and approval by EPA prior to labeling. The agency said it has strengthened its evaluations and is no longer relying on an automated approval process; all new Energy Star applications will be reviewed and approved individually by EPA.
According to a press release, the agencies plan to bolster the certification process with a requirement effective at the end of the year that all manufacturers must submit test results from an approved, accredited lab for any product seeking the Energy Star label. Testing in an accredited lab is currently required for certain product categories including windows, doors, skylights, and compact fluorescent lighting. The new process will extend the requirement to each of the more than 60 eligible product categories under the Energy Star program.
“Consumers can continue to trust Energy Star to save energy and money and protect the environment,” asserts a joint statement from DOE and EPA.
Roosevelt delivers one of his “fireside chats,” broadcasts that began two years prior to his 1935 creation of REA.
On REA’s 50th birthday in 1985, the Postal Service issued this commemorative first-class stamp.
In marking anniversaries, once you get beyond 10 years it seems the “biggies” come along in 25-year increments. It was never clear to me why multiples of that particular number get lifted up a notch for recognition, but for whatever reason, when they arrive it’s time to take special note.
This month we celebrate a 75-year anniversary of an action that this nation’s cooperatively owned electric utilities know as the initial boost for the campaign to electrify rural America.
Fewer than one in 10 farms had electricity in when President Franklin Roosevelt issued Executive Order 7037 on May 11, 1935, creating the Rural Electrification Administration (REA). A month earlier, Roosevelt had signed the broad Emergency Relief Appropriations Act, which made federal funding available under eight categories of projects considered vital to recovery from the Great Depression.
Rural electrification was one of those eight, and REA was needed as the vehicle for dispensing loan money to worthy electrification projects throughout the countryside. Though any type of utility could have accessed the funding, cooperatives emerged as the organizations with the most promise for carrying out the REA mission.
Job #1: Build
For the rural leaders who recruited members and organized local co-ops, that mission in the early years necessarily focused on building whole electric systems where none had existed. Poles, wires, and transformers were tangible, visible signs of progress, and the co-ops succeeded spectacularly in the decades following Roosevelt’s New Deal—to the point where electric service in the more remote areas became near-universal.
To some in government, however, that accomplishment suggested the job was complete and that the financing program was therefore no longer needed.
More than Wires
Often misunderstood by many who have targeted rural electric loan programs for phase-out is that the original, ongoing mission has also included reasonable rates as a goal. Roosevelt himself credited his experience with high retail electric rates—not the absence of service—for prompting his initial interest in rural electrification.
What it recognizes: All the infrastructure in the world does little good if consumers can’t afford to pay the rates for rural service. It simply costs more in labor and materials to serve consumers spread out across a broad, rural landscape than in a densely populated urban center, and that unchanging dynamic is why the lending programs to rural electric co-ops continue to make sense.
Unfortunately, misconceptions about the mission being complete linger. In fact, the Obama administration’s 2011 budget is calling for a cut of $2.5 billion, or 38 percent, to the Rural Utilities Service (the successor to REA) loan program. As a result, electric cooperatives will once again press Congress to ensure that rural consumers will have ongoing access to safe, reliable, and affordable supplies of power.
After all, it’s now a 75-year-old, national commitment—and the job continues.
As Memorial Day approaches, consider a unique and educational way to honor the sacrifices made by the men and women who have served our country by planning a visit to the Wisconsin National Guard Museum. Located at historic Camp Williams/Volk Field near Camp Douglas, the museum has 3,000 square feet of exhibits detailing the rich history of the Wisconsin National Guard, from its 19th century origins to the present day.
The museum’s exterior is an exhibit all its own. Housed in a log building constructed in 1896 as an officers’ club for members of the Guard, the museum is situated in a park-like setting amidst an outdoor collection of historic aircraft, tanks, and self-propelled machine guns.
Inside the restored log building, you’ll trace the National Guard’s storied roles in conflicts from the Civil War to Operation Desert Storm. Exhibits portray the triumphs of some of the Guard’s most well-known units, including the famous Red Arrow 32nd Division, which served with distinction on the battlefields of France during World War I, having been the first American division to pierce the famed Hindenberg Line. These dogged World War I battles led the French to brand the Division with the nickname “Les Terribles.” The Red Arrow Division was also the first American division to fight an offensive action against the Japanese in the Southwest Pacific during World War II, eventually logging a record 654 days of combat in the Pacific during that conflict. The 32nd Division was deactivated in 1967 and reactivated as the 32nd Brigade, which carries on the honors and traditions of the red arrow symbol yet today.
While the exploits of the famous Red Arrow Division are fully documented, other exhibits are devoted to some lesser known, but no less interesting, aspects of the National Guard’s history. One such exhibit tells the story of Staff Sergeant Smokey, a terrier mutt that served as the mascot of Company H, 127th Infantry Regiment. Smokey endured the hardships of the New Guinea jungles during World War II and was eventually “promoted” to sergeant and awarded the Presidential Unit Citation. Smokey was much more than a morale booster, however; the exhibit details how she saved the lives of her caretaker and other infantrymen one night by waking them as a Japanese soldier approached the trench in which they were holding position.
The museum also outlines major postwar changes to the National Guard, including the establishment of the Wisconsin Air National Guard and its year of active duty during the 1961 Berlin Crisis. Also included is the history of nearby Camp Douglas, which was established as a “wooding” camp for the Milwaukee Railroad.
There’s so much more to see at the National Guard Museum that you’ll be sure to leave with a renewed appreciation for those who have served and a deepened pride in Wisconsin’s key contributions to our nation’s military efforts.—Mary Erickson
For more information, call (608) 427-
1280 or visit www.wvmfoundation.com/
wi-national-guard.php. The museum is
open year-round from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.
Wednesdays through Saturdays and 10
a.m. to 2 p.m. Sundays. To reach the
museum, exit I-90/I-94 at Interchange 55
at Camp Douglas, follow the signs to Camp
Williams/Volk Field, and proceed through
the checkpoint at the base entrance.
